MEDINA —
The climate trend that’s emerged this winter — brief spells of cold and minimal snow cover, broken up quickly by warmth and rain — apparently will hold into spring.
A cold snap and some snow was in this weekend’s forecast, but according to National Weather Service meteorologist Aaron Reynolds, both the cold and the snow should start melting away today.
Through spring’s arrival in March, Reynolds predicted, “we’ll see a continuation of the pattern” — bursts of cold air and light snow, followed by warmth, snowmelt, rain and repeat.
Weather data confirms the common belief that we’re experiencing a mild winter in the Western New York area. Monthly average air temperature was 35.5 degrees in December and 30.3 degrees in January, 5.4 degrees higher than normal both months. Recorded snowfall in that period was 24.6 inches, or less than half the expected average.
January was more wet than icy, with measured precipitation of 4.43 inches for the month, over an inch more than average.
So far, February has been warmer — 8.4 degrees higher than normal — and has seen only trace precipitation.
Whatever snow is still coming this winter, it’s less likely to be of the lake-effect variety despite the fact Lake Erie never froze over, according to Reynolds. Lake effect snow can result when cold air cuts across the open and relatively warm lakes. But at this point in the year, the days are getting longer and greater sunlight will help prevent the warm-cold clash that makes the famous white stuff.
Environmentally, a mild winter may or may not exact a price from the region later this year, according to John Farfaglia, a horticulturalist with the Cornell Cooperative Extension in Lockport.
The lack of snow cover poses no threat to fruit trees, he said, but relative mild conditions over an extended period could rouse trees out of dormancy earlier than normal. Once bud formation starts, cold is a lethal enemy.
“It’s the beginning of the growing season when the potential for damage is highest. It’s always wait-and-see,” Farfaglia said.
Larger populations of stinging pests — wasps, hornets and the like — can also result from a warmer winter. Farfaglia said that’s because they’ll come out earlier in the spring and therefore have more time to build up their numbers.
The lack of ice in the lakes might have a consequence later in the year, Reynolds said. In spring, as the land and air begin warming up, ice keeps the water cool a while longer. That helps slow the growth of algae blooms in summer.
Reynolds’ early forecast is for a wet spring — through May, the precipitation outlook is 30 percent above normal, and trending toward “liquid” rather than “icy”— but whether it’s a cooler or warmer season than normal is up in the air. NWS suggests a 50/50 chance the barometer could go either way.
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